The Status Quo

As we head into match day 11, some statistics to consider.

This is our Kenya Cup Table at the moment;

 

No Team Played Won Drawn Lost Bonus Points Total Points
1. Resolution Impala Saracens 10 8 0 2 9 41
2. Kenya Harlequin 10 9 0 1 5 41
3. KCB 10 6 1 3 10 36
4. Menengai Cream Homeboyz 9 7 0 2 8 36
5. Pan Africa Strathmore Leos 9 7 0 2 6 34
6. Mwamba 10 6 1 3 6 32
7. Top Fry Nakuru 10 6 0 4 7 31
8. Kabras Sugar 10 5 1 4 8 30
9. Nondescripts 10 5 0 5 4 24
10. Western Bulls 10 3 1 6 6 20
11. Blak Blad 10 4 0 6 3 19
12. Mean Machine 10 1 0 9 1 5
13. Thika 10 0 0 10 1 1
14. Kenya  Sharks 10 0 0 10 0 0

I have used a simple mathematical formula to calculate and determine the table by the time the regular season is concluded. i.e.

Blak Blad has won 4 games out of 10 and amassed 3 bonus points.  So assuming they continue to play in the same manner and to a large extent get the same results in the remaining 9 games they would total:

0.9 x 4 = 3.6 ( rounding up they should win 4 games)

0.9 x 3 = 2.7 (again rounding up, they should het 3 bonus points)

So in the next 9 games, the status quo being maintained Black Blad would have 19 points and hence have a total of 38 points.

So with this status quo formula this is the table at the end of the regular season;

No Team Played Won Drawn Lost Bonus Points Total Points
1. Kenya Harlequin 19 17 0 2 10 78
2. Resolution Impala Saracens 19 15 0 4 17 77
3. Menengai Cream Homeboyz 19 15 0 4 17 77
4. Pan Africa Strathmore Leos 19 15 0 4 13 73
5. KCB 19 11 2 6 19 67
6. Mwamba 19 11 2 6 12 60
7. Kabras 19 10 2 7 15 59
8. Top Fry Nakuru 19 11 0 8 13 57
9. Nondescripts 19 10 0 9 8 48
10. Western Bulls 19 6 2 6 11 39
11. Blak Blad 19 8 0 6 6 38
12. Mean Machine 19 2 0 17 2 10
13. Thika 19 0 0 19 2 2
14. Kenya  Sharks 19 0 0 19 0 0

 

Considering things remain constant, it means different things for different teams depending on their goals:

Impala: For Impala to remain the top seeded team they would need to maintain their high scoring form to continue racking in the bonus points and would need to at least reverse one of the losses they suffered earlier in the season, so as to get those 4 crucial points in order to edge Quins out of the point they have over them.

Harlequin: For Quins its quite simple, pick up bonus points!! Quins have won more games than Impala, but Impala sit at the top purely because of bonus points! If Quins can manage to pick up 9 bonus points in the remaining 9 games they would secure a buffer of 5 points at the top in case Impala reverse one of those losses, and this is with them factoring in a loss in the remaining 9 games.

Homeboyz: Homeboyz scoring difference at the moment is about 180 points below Impala’s, they could work hard and have a scoring difference of at least 23 points in at least 8 games or they could go the “easier” route and aim to reverse one or both of the losses they have suffered thus far so as to finish in 2nd or maybe even 1st position.

Strathmore: For Strathmore to finish in either of the top 2 position they would need to work hard, aiming to amass more bonus points per game and reversing a loss or two.  If they do manage to reverse two losses they may be siting on top spot considering their superior points difference.

KCB:  KCB are within reach of Kabras and Top fry Nakuru (if both teams can manage to reverse two losses and two bonus points).  Although if KCB can manage to reverse two losses and two bonus points they are within at least Impala, Homeboys and Strathmore and being in safely secure in either 3rd of 4th position.

Mwamba: At status Quo, they have just made it into the playoffs, beating Kabras by a point, but KCB are within 2 reverse losses and 2 bonus points of them, so with hard work they could sit more comfortably in 5th spot.

Kabras: Kabras are within a point of the playoffs, which mean, 2 bonus points or reverse one loss and they’re in!  Reverse 2 losses and get two extra bonus points and KCB are in reach!!

Top Fry Nakuru: They are out of the playoffs based on current form, but all is not lost reverse a game or two and secure some extra bonus points and they are in!!

Nondies: Nodnies would need to secure an extra 12 points, which is either 3 games or two games and two extra bonus points, which seems like a true uphill task to make the playoffs.

Considering all the statistics above the table seems to have been divided into 3:

The top group being those based on current from and Status Quo would comfortable make the Playoffs; battling between them who would finish top two. These would be Harlequins, Impala, Homeboys and Strathmore.

The second group being those in the play offs (not comfortably though) and those just missing out, and can fight for the remaining two slots; KCB, Mwamba, Kabras and Nakuru.

The third group being those who are missing out on the play offs or rather would have to rely on all sorts of probabilities and fortunes to make the play offs.

It is important to remember that there are all sorts of things that can happen between now and the end of the regular season, from injuries costing teams, to referee decisions, to teams falling out of form, to surprise wins and loss for any team.

Maybe it is still too early to talk about play offs but so when is the right time to being planning to make the Play offs? I think now is a good a time as any, if you need to change strategy do so and if for nothing else just to subconsciously know what one needs to do to make the play offs will give a certain fire to one’s game!

– Barrack Bukusi

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